Boxing Day is usually a time for Premier League fans to put their feet up and soak in a full slate of action.

But this year, to the frustration of many a traditionalist, there is only one Premier League fixture on December 26.

While there's a feast of Championship and lower-league football to tuck into, fans have to wait until late on for the sole top-flight clash, as Manchester United welcome Newcastle United to Old Trafford.

This will be the first Boxing Day in Premier League history to see as few as one game being played.

Fittingly, it is between the team with the most Boxing Day wins in the competition (Man Utd, 22) and the team with the joint-most defeats on December 26 (Newcastle, 16).

So, can we expect a Christmas cracker? We delve into the Opta data to preview Friday's clash.

What's expected?

Opta's supercomputer is finding it difficult to split these teams.

United come out on top in 39.2% of the model's data-led simulations, while Newcastle were victorious in 34.2%.

There is a healthy 26.6% chance of a draw.

United have, though, won all three of their Premier League Boxing Day games against Newcastle, with all three coming under different managers – 4-3 in 2012 (Alex Ferguson), 3-1 in 2014 (Louis van Gaal) and 4-1 in 2019 (Ole Gunnar Solskjaer).

Newcastle, however, did the league double over United last season, including a 2-0 win in the corresponding fixture, which was also played over the Christmas period.

Yet the Magpies have not won on consecutive visits to Old Trafford since March 1935, while they last won three in a row against the Red Devils in January 1922.

United have lost four of their last five Premier League games against Newcastle (W1), as many as they had in their previous 38 against the Magpies (W25 D9).

The Red Devils sit seventh in the table and a win could see them rise into the top five, level on points with fourth-place Chelsea.

There have been plenty of goals in matches involving these teams of late. Newcastle have netted 12 times in their last six league outings, while United have scored 12 across their last five games in the top flight.

While Newcastle have performed on track against their expected goals figures – scoring 23 times from chances worth 23.7 xG – United have netted 31 times from 32.1 xG, which ranks second in the division.

Two of the last three games between these sides have seen both teams score. Do not be surprised if that is the case again.

Can Man Utd cope without captain fantastic Fernandes?

No player in the Premier League this season has been involved in more open-play shot-ending sequences than United playmaker Bruno Fernandes (116).

Yet Ruben Amorim's team will be without their captain here, after he sustained a hamstring injury in Sunday's 2-1 loss to Aston Villa.

Fernandes carried on until half-time but was unable to continue into the second half, and United missed his creativity.

The Portugal international has created a league-leading 51 chances this term (15 more than next-best Jeremy Doku), with his 4.11 expected assists also topping the charts. Nobody can match his seven assists, either.

And United's record without their skipper is, well, woeful.

United have failed to win any of their seven Premier League games since the 2022-23 campaign without Fernandes in their starting lineup, losing six of those (D1). The Red Devils have netted just four goals across those matches.   

Other players, then, will have to step up if Fernandes is out.

United are not helped by their absences due to the Africa Cup of Nations, with Bryan Mbeumo and Amad Diallo currently at that tournament.

But they have got a relatively kind fixture list over the festive period. After taking on Newcastle, United face lowly Wolves before going up against Leeds United and Burnley. They will be the favourites in all of those matches.

The loss to Villa was only United's second defeat in the space of 11 games since the end of September. And while they are not ready for a title challenge, they can definitely consider themselves firmly in the mix for European qualification.

However, United have lost 14 Premier League games for the third consecutive calendar year, though the Red Devils have not suffered more league defeats in a year since 1989 under Ferguson (18). 

United have lost their last three Premier League matches played between Christmas and New Year, as many as they lost in their previous 43 (W32 D8 L3).

Newcastle need 90-minute approach

Whether it is a mentality issue or a bit of misfortune, Newcastle have a habit of going ahead but being unable to hold on. 

In recent weeks, they have let leads slip against Tottenham, Bayer Leverkusen and Chelsea.

As such, Newcastle head into Christmas in the bottom half of the Premier League table.

The congested nature of the table means that a win for Newcastle would not only see them rise into the top half, but even potentially leapfrog United into seventh place.

Newcastle have won just one of their last four league games, but they do have another EFL Cup semi-final to look forward to and are well placed in the Champions League.

This season may have been a frustrating one so far, but there are still plenty of reasons to be positive. Albeit, Eddie Howe is dealing with a long injury list.

They do have forwards in form, though. Nick Woltemade scored twice against Chelsea last weekend, while Anthony Gordon is back to looking dangerous.

Gordon has registered a goal involvement in four of his last six appearances (four goals, two assists). He could easily have won a penalty against the Blues, too.

But what about Newcastle's festive record?

They have won their last two away league matches played between Christmas and New Year, beating Leicester City on Boxing Day 2022 and Man Utd on December 30 last year.

The Magpies had won just two of their previous 34 away league games played between Boxing Day and New Year’s Eve (D6 L26).

Howe has won seven of his 13 Boxing Day league games as a manager (D3 L3) – he won all five outside of the top flight as Bournemouth and Burnley manager between 2009 and 2014, but only has a 25% win ratio in the Premier League (P8 W2 D3 L3).

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Man Utd – Matheus Cunha

Cunha has come into form for United, and given their absences, he has done so at just the right time.

The Brazilian scored against Villa and should probably have netted a second, as he headed wide from a Patrick Dorgu cross.

Cunha has now scored in back-to-back Premier League games after only netting once in his first 12 for United.

The forward has averaged 4.1 shots per 90 in the Premier League this season – the most of any player to have played at least 400 minutes. Using the same filter, Cunha ranks third for shots on target per 90 (1.57).

Newcastle – Nick Woltemade

Woltemade has scored seven Premier League goals this season.

The only German players to net more often in their debut campaign in the competition are Jurgen Klinsmann in 1994-95 (20), Lukas Podolski in 2012-13 (11) and Andre Schurrle in 2013-14 (eight).

Only four players have netted more Premier League goals this term than the former Stuttgart striker, who is outperforming his 5.99 xG.