The festive season is often considered a time for reflection, but a new year is just around the corner, so many of us will be looking to the future, too.

What better time, then, to recap the stories that have shaped each of Europe's top five leagues this campaign, and ask what might happen next?

While the football keeps coming in England and Italy, the top divisions in Spain, Germany and France are on winter hiatuses until January.

Across the Premier League, LaLiga, Serie A, the Bundesliga and Ligue 1, who is expected to win silverware in 2026, and who might find themselves at risk of relegation?

We turned to the Opta supercomputer's predictions to find out.

Premier League: Arsenal lead three-horse title race, Wolves doomed

Arsenal lead the Premier League table at Christmas, but that has not been a good omen for the Gunners in the past.

They have led the way on December 25 on four previous occasions, in 2002-03, 2007-08, 2022-23 and 2023-24 – the latter two under Mikel Arteta – without ever going on to capture the title. 

In fact, Arsenal have failed to get their hands on their trophy the last eight times they have led the Division One or Premier League table at Christmas, last finishing top after leading the way at that point in 1947-48.

The Opta supercomputer makes them the clear favourites, with a 68.7% chance of topping the pile, though there are three teams assigned over a 5% probability – to show how competitive it is, the same can only be said about one other league among Europe's big five.  

Manchester City are second favourites, triumphing in 24.4% of Opta's season simulations, but supporters know better than to write them off.

City have won eight Premier League titles but only led the table at Christmas in three of those seasons. In fact, the last five times the festive leaders did not go on to capture the title, it was City that overhauled them – accounting for five of Pep Guardiola's six titles. 

Aston Villa have been this season's surprise package, sitting in third place following 10 straight victories in all competitions. They have also beaten both City and Arsenal at Villa Park already this term, and their hopes sit at 5.5%.

Liverpool are given a 1% chance, with Chelsea (0.4%) the only other team with at least a one-in-a-thousand chance.

While Arsenal (99.6%) and City (97.2%) are near-certainties to make the top four, there is an intriguing battle behind them, led by Villa (83.9%), Liverpool (56.3%), Chelsea (35%).

Crystal Palace (6.5%) and Manchester United (5.6%) are among the outsiders for Champions League qualification.

At the bottom, Wolves appear doomed, with a 99.9% chance of relegation and a 91.5% chance of finishing bottom. They might be more concerned with passing Derby County's all-time worst points haul of 11 (in 2007-08), given they have made the joint-worst start to a campaign in Premier League history (two points from 17 games, also Sheffield United in 2020-21). 

At 88.3%, Burnley are predicted to join them, and recent upturns from Leeds United (22.5%) and Nottingham Forest (16.1%) have left West Ham (60.7%) firmly in trouble.

LaLiga: Barcelona backed to retain crown as giants fight relegation  

To Spain, now, where supporters are accustomed to seeing Barcelona and Real Madrid duel for the title with Atletico Madrid on the fringes. Not much has changed this year.

Barcelona are currently four points clear at the summit, and they go on to retain their crown in 76.9% of our 2025-26 simulations.

The Blaugrana have ended 2025 brilliantly, winning their last eight matches in LaLiga with each victory coming by a margin of at least two goals – should they beat Espanyol by two clear goals next time out on January 3, they will match their longest such streak (nine between October and December 2010).

It has been a troubled first half of the season for Madrid, with Xabi Alonso's future being questioned just six months after he left Bayer Leverkusen to return to Spain.

They are assigned a 19.3% chance of recovering to win the title, and if they are to accomplish that feat, they will need Kylian Mbappe to maintain his remarkable form.

In 2025, Mbappe has scored 20 more goals and provided 20 more goal involvements than any other player in LaLiga (39 goals, five assists – 44 goal contributions). 

Atletico are five points further back of their cross-city rivals, with Diego Simeone's hopes of delivering his third Spanish crown for Los Colchoneros standing at 3.3%.

The last time any club other than Barca, Madrid or Atletico won LaLiga was in 2003-04, when Rafa Benitez's Valencia delivered their second crown in three seasons. Deportivo La Coruna also triumphed in 1999-00, but before then, you have to go back to Athletic Club in 1983-84 for another different champion.

Villarreal are assigned a 0.5% chance of a stunning title success, though overhauling an 11-point deficit to Barcelona already looks a near-impossible task. The Yellow Submarine should stay afloat in the battle for a top-four finish, though, achieving that feat in 76.5% of sims.

Espanyol sit fifth following an excellent start to the campaign under Manolo Gonzalez, who has an 11.5% chance of leading them to Champions League qualification. Real Betis are more fancied at 15.3%, with Celta Vido making the top four in 0.9% of sims and Athletic in 0.5%.

Levante currently prop up the table and are six points from safety, and they are relegated in 72.9% of simulations. Real Oviedo are one point above them, and in their first top-flight season in 25 years, they are assigned an 84.9% chance of relegation.

Girona – who were in the Champions League as recently as 2023-24 – are deemed the third-most likely team to suffer the drop at 48.2%, while Valencia (18.7%) and Real Sociedad (14.4%) are surprise strugglers. Twelve different clubs are relegated in at least 5% of simulations, so it could be a nervy few months for over half the league.

Serie A: Five main contenders in Europe's most competitive title race

The honour of having Europe's most competitive league goes to Italy, if the supercomputer's predictions are to be believed. 

That is because there are five different teams assigned more than a 4% chance of winning Serie A, compared to three teams in the Premier League, two in both LaLiga and Ligue 1, and one in the Bundesliga.

Leaders Inter and fifth-placed Juventus are separated by just four points with one Serie A matchday remaining in 2025, albeit the Bianconeri, like fourth-placed Roma, have played a game more than their rivals.

Inter may have fallen short in the Supercoppa Italiana last week, losing to Bologna in the semi-finals, but they have a 53.7% chance of reclaiming the Scudetto.

Defending champions Napoli won the Supercoppa, making 2025 their first multi-trophy year since the Diego Maradona era, and they are assigned an 18% probability of retaining the title for the first time.

Milan are just a fraction behind them, winning the title in 17.9% of sims, having gone unbeaten through their last 14 Serie A matches after starting their second stint under

Massimiliano Allegri with a defeat to Cremonese in August – that is the longest ongoing stretch of any team in Serie A. 

Roma top the pile in 5.1% of projections, with Juventus doing so in 4.3%.

Cesc Fabregas' Como are assigned an 8.6% chance of a surprise top-four finish, though Inter (95.7%), Napoli (81.7%), Milan (80.6%), Roma (52.9%), Juventus (52.6%) and Bologna (15.2%) are more heavily favoured. 

One major theme across the top five divisions is established clubs battling relegation, and Fiorentina are the surprise strugglers in Serie A.

La Viola are – alongside Pisa – one of two Serie A sides without a win so far this campaign – only Wolves (zero) have fewer victories in Europe's top five divisions. 

Fiorentina appointed Paolo Vanoli as their new head coach in November after Stefano Pioli lasted just four months at the helm, and the supercomputer is backing him to turn their season around, as they are only relegated in 40% of simulations.

Pisa go down in 67.8% of projections, Hellas Verona in 49.9%, Parma in 36.8%, Genoa in 33%, Lecce in 32.5%, and Cagliari in 27.7%. They are the seven most prominent candidates, with a four-point gap having opened up directly above them.

Bundesliga: Little challenge to Bayern, half the league fighting for survival 

From Europe's most competitive title race to its least competitive.

It will surprise nobody to hear that Bayern Munich are considered near-certainties to retain their Bundesliga title, with a 97.4% probability. 

Borussia Dortmund (2.1%) are the only other team with more than a 1% chance, with the gap between Bayern and the rest already standing at nine points.

Vincent Kompany's team have won 13 of their 15 matches this season, drawing the other two, and their 41 points are the most by any team at this stage of a Bundesliga campaign.

Bayern's run of 16 consecutive wins in all competitions to start the season was the best of any team in Europe's top five divisions, though it came to an end with a 3-1 Champions League loss to Arsenal in November.

Averaging 2.7 points per game, they are also on course to break their own single-season points record, having amassed 91 under Jupp Heynckes. Should they continue at their current pace, Kompany's men would reach 92. 

And Harry Kane has a record of his own to chase, having already scored 19 times in 15 Bundesliga matches. 

Robert Lewandowski's all-time high was 41 goals in 2020-21, a season in which the Poland star missed five matches. Kane is averaging 1.45 goals per 90 minutes, so fitness-permitting, he will back himself to reach that landmark. 

Behind Bayern, Dortmund are assigned a 95.2% chance of making the top four, with Bayer Leverkusen at 85.7%, RB Leipzig at 58.5%, Stuttgart at 25.1% and Hoffenheim at 18.2%.

The relegation battle is even tighter, as bottom club Mainz escape the bottom two in 64.2% of season simulations. Heidenheim are the favourites for automatic relegation at 59.8%, with St. Pauli at 44.9% – they are the favourites to be in the relegation-promotion play-off, finishing 16th in 16.3% of sims.

Their cross-city rivals Hamburger SV are automatically relegated in 15.6% of projections, with every team in the bottom half assigned at least a 2% chance of the drop (Augsburg 14.4%, Koln 10.9%, Wolfsburg 9.2%, Borussia Monchengladbach 5.8%, Werder Bremen 2.9%)

Ligue 1: PSG heavily favoured, Lens in front for now

Ligue 1 is the only one of Europe's top five leagues in which the Opta supercomputer's title favourites are not top of the tree at Christmas.

Paris Saint-Germain are assigned an 87.6% chance of winning their fifth straight title, even if Luis Enrique's side are currently one point off the summit.

PSG enjoyed a historic year in 2025, with a first-ever Champions League success the highlight of their six trophy wins (also Ligue 1, the Coupe de France, the Trophee des Champions, the UEFA Super Cup and the Intercontinental Cup). They are just the second European club to lift six trophies in a single year, after Barcelona in 2009.

They have won back-to-back matches in Ligue 1 since suffering a 1-0 defeat to Monaco on November 29, but a run of six straight victories has Lens ahead of them for the moment.

Having taken over a team that finished eighth last season, Pierre Sage has made a tremendous start and is assigned a 7.2% chance of delivering what would be just their second Ligue 1 title – and their first since 1997-98.

A more realistic target, though, is surely a return to the Champions League, and they are assigned a 91.4% chance of making the top four. 

Marseille have also thrilled under Roberto De Zerbi, with their 36 goals scored giving them the best attack in the French top flight. Their title hopes are a lowly 3.5%, but they make the top four in 83.3% of our sims. 

There is already a five-point gap between Lille in fourth and Lyon in fifth, and with the former boasting a 71.4% chance of Champions League qualification to the latter's 27.7%.

Ligue 1 has adopted the same relegation format as the Bundesliga since 2023-24, and Metz (59.8%) and Nantes (51.4%) are the current favourites to finish in the bottom two. 

Auxerre (34.7%), Le Havre (21.2%), Paris FC (21.1%) and Nice (6.1%) round out the current bottom six in the table and are the other teams with more than a 5% chance of automatic relegation.