While a 12-game unbeaten run in all competitions may suggest the tide is turning at Liverpool, the mood is far from positive at Anfield ahead of their Champions League return. 

The Reds make the trip to Marseille this Wednesday in their penultimate league-phase encounter in the Champions League, hoping to edge closer to a top-eight finish.

But they arrive in the south of France following a disappointing 1-1 draw with Burnley in the Premier League, a result that has once again put Arne Slot under increasing pressure.

But in Europe, Liverpool have fared much better. A 1-0 win over Inter, courtesy of Dominik Szoboszlai's late penalty, has put the Reds within touching distance of the top eight. 

They sit on 12 points, level with Inter, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid ahead of matchday seven, but are in ninth place having scored fewer than Diego Simeone's side. 

However, they come up against a Marseille side with automatic qualification hopes of their own, with three points separating them and the Premier League champions in the table.

And with so much on the line here, it could prove to be a huge encounter at Orange Velodrome. With the help of Opta data, we preview this intriguing European clash. 

What's expected?

The Opta supercomputer has run 10,000 data-led simulations, and it is Slot's side who are fancied to triumph on Wednesday. 

Liverpool are assigned a 46.8% chance of victory over their Ligue 1 opponents, with Marseille handed a 28.6% probability of taking all three points.

A draw happened in 24.6% of those outcomes, though recent history between both of these sides in the competition suggests the likelihood of a stalemate is slim.

Marseille are on a run of 30 Champions League games without a draw (W8 L22) while Liverpool have not drawn any of their last 27 (W19 L8). They are the two longest runs without a draw in the competition's history.

But it has been Liverpool who have had the better of this fixture. Marseille have lost their last three Champions League games against the Reds, most recently in the 2008-09 group stage (1-2 home, 0-1 away).

However, Liverpool have won just one of their last six away games against French sides in all competitions (D2 L3), though it was a 1-0 win at Paris Saint-Germain in their most recent visit in March 2025.

Free-scoring Marseille out to pile more misery on Liverpool

Marseille remain in the hunt for the Ligue 1 title, currently finding themselves third in the table behind PSG and Lens, but their recent form in Europe has them believing. 

They have won their last two Champions League games, against Newcastle United and Union Saint-Gilloise. They last won more consecutively between October and December 2010 (a run of four).

Indeed, that 2-1 win against Newcastle in November ended a 12-game winless run against English sides in all competitions (D3 L9).

The last time they beat two different Premier League clubs in the same European campaign was in 2003-04, when they beat Newcastle and Liverpool in the UEFA Cup.

And Roberto de Zerbi's team enter this match with confidence. They thumped Angers 5-2 in the league on Saturday, with four of their goals coming in the first half. 

Indeed, they scored four goals in the first 40 minutes of a Ligue 1 game for the second time in the 21st century after doing so against Lille in April 2018 (4-0 in the 38th minute). 

Marseille have also scored 16 goals in 2026 in all competitions, the highest total among teams in the big five European leagues at the start of this year, tied with Bayern Munich.

And leading their attack has been former Manchester United forward Mason Greenwood, who now has 20 goals in 2025-26 in all competitions from 26 outings.

Greenwood has become the first player to achieve this feat in two different seasons with Marseille since Andre-Pierre Gignac (22 in 2013-14 and 23 in 2014-15).

He is also the first player to achieve this in his first two seasons at the Ligue 1 giants since Tony Cascarino, who netted 36 times in 1994-95 before scoring 34 in 1995-96. 

De Zerbi also has a good record against Liverpool when on home soil. During his time in charge of Brighton, he faced the Reds twice in the Premier League at Amex Stadium and never lost (W1 D1), and another victory here will go a long way in their top-eight ambitions. 

Can returning Salah spark Slot's men into life?

Liverpool's 32 shots against Burnley were their most in a Premier League game since versus Brentford in January last season (37).

Their 11 shots on target are their most since they played West Ham in December 2024 (13) and most in a home game since facing Bournemouth in September 2024 (13).

And for the first time since the 1980-81 top-flight season (D1 L2), Liverpool failed to win any of their three home league games against promoted sides, drawing all three.

They have now drawn six of their last nine Premier League games (W3), as many as in their previous 36 matches (W21 D6 L9), and are out for a much-needed win in Europe.

But one player who could provide that clinical edge is Mohamed Salah, who has been earmarked to make his Liverpool return after leading Egypt to a fourth-placed finish at the recent Africa Cup of Nations, where he scored four times in six matches. 

Indeed, since Salah departed for international duty, Liverpool managed to score just nine goals in six games in all competitions. Among Premier League teams during that timeframe, they were joint-ninth in that metric, level with Leeds United and Burnley and lower than Wolves (12). 

The 33-year-old is two goals away from reaching 50 goals in the Champions League and would become the 11th player in the history of the competition to reach a half-century.

But as a team, Liverpool have looked to build from the front. As a team, they have applied more pressures in the opposition penalty area than any other side in the Champions League this season (313).

Hugo Ekitike is responsible for 73 of these, the most of any Reds player.

However, it has been the quickness of Liverpool's play in recent weeks that has been scrutinised, a feature that was so prevalent during the 'heavy metal' days of Jurgen Klopp. 

They have shown that they can perform on the European stage, evident in their 5-1 thrashing of Eintracht Frankfurt back in October, but that goal threat is something Slot will want to improve moving forward, with Salah potentially key to that, having rediscovered his shooting boots over the last month. 

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Marseille – Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang

Only Kylian Mbappe (nine) has been involved in more Champions League goals than Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang this season (seven).

Indeed, with three goals and four assists, it is the Gabon striker's second-best return in a single campaign in the competition after 2016-17 (seven goals, one assist).

Aubameyang has also scored 13 goals in major European competition for Marseille, netting three in the Champions League this term and 10 in the 2023-24 Europa League. Only Jean-Pierre Papin (23) has scored more for the club across major European competitions (excluding qualifiers).

Liverpool – Florian Wirtz

Florian Wirtz has begun to find his feet at Anfield, with six of his nine goal involvements for Liverpool coming since December 20 (four goals, two assists). No Premier League player has more in all competitions in that time.

And while his form has stuttered in the top-flight, the German international has shone in the Champions League. Only Real Madrid's Mbappe (20) has created more chances than Wirtz in this year's competition (17, level with Szoboszlai and Bayern Munich's Michael Olise).